George is right in that possibility of predicting airfares come 2009 is next to impossible. What I suspect, based on my gut alone, is that there will be good fares at the last minute or for specific dates the airlines want to push. Like cruise companies, who are rather nervous about their year to come, locking people in becomes more and more appealing as the economy continues spiral. Consequently, I suspect a lot of the discount fares in '09 will be heavily restricted.
Likewise, what's happening with hotel rates is instructive. There is a definite split between properties and companies that believe in true revenue management, that is, filling the rooms no matter what, and those are still worried about sullying their brand. For example, Vegas properties are in Column A, while Miami hotels are still in Column B. Some of the Column B types are coming around, but many of the higher-end remain cagey. Watch out for packages where you give back the savings on discounted spa treatments or room categories than the most basic ones.
What do I see for 2009? Vacationers should go where the deals are. Hotels in Florida, Jamaica, London and Hawaii are acting cocky because they think the guests will come no matter how bad the economy gets (and they are counting on airfares going down before they have to lower their rates) but that's shortsighted and, frankly, wrong. Go somewhere, anywhere, that wants your business but doesn't expect it by dint of their existence: Las Vegas, Chicago, South Carolina, Spain and Budapest all remain good buys in 2009.
Good luck, and maybe I'll see you at the Flamingo.
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